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Mindanao secession issue to warn of ‘civil war’ in Ph
By Nidz Godino
“Few days ago, I read somewhere about statement of Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, he cautioned us about rising tensions in that part of the sea…and I agree with him…we cannot afford to go to war with China and be battleground for what is to come… I can only imagine lopsided battle where after all these tensions Philippines is in losing end, wala tayong panalo dito .” former House Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez said several anonymous accounts on Chinese social media were quick to seize on Filipino politician’s proposal to secede Mindanao from Philippines to fuel speculation of brewing “civil war” in the country, with several attributing alleged unrest to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s “pro-United States” stance.
Coordinated campaign to spread rumors of impending conflict in the Philippines took off days after Alvarez (Davao del Norte, 1st District) issued statement in November 2023 calling to make Mindanao independent due to Marcos’ policies in West Philippine Sea. Within days, over 60 posts and articles about Mindanao independence campaign were published on Chinese platforms.
Besides anonymous accounts, campaign was also amplified by one prominent Chinese media entity that is known to be active distributor of Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda.
Monitoring by Philippine media in collaboration with Taiwan-based Doublethink Lab from November 2023 to February 2024 showed Chinese social media users already actively produced content alleging an imminent conflict in the Philippines even before former President Rodrigo Duterte publicly called to secede Mindanao in January 2024.
Several articles reported Alvarez’s remarks implied through their headlines and text that Beijing was important enough to compel Mindanao to protest government’s, and hence, Marcos’ handling of Chinese vessels in West Philippine Sea, they claimed to be “provocative” and “dangerous.”
These posts echo another similar months-long campaign to paint Philippines as unlawful and aggressive country in the tense waterways.
Coordinated spread of this narrative, among others, has some of the markings of an influence operation media is tracking across all social media platforms, groups and spaces on internet.
Whether posts were about Alvarez’s remarks or of Duterte’s, most used same keywords and were also often authored by accounts that do not use their real name. Keywords for Marcos alleged he was “being hostile to China” and “moving in dangerous direction,” while Mindanao independence campaign was described as “trigger for political in-fighting” or “possible civil war.”
Alvarez has advocated for Mindanao’s independence as early as 2005, according to a July 9, 2005 published article of a daily detailed then-Davao City mayor Duterte’s calls to secede Mindanao in context of country’s rising discontent against then-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
The former House speaker revived this call in 2023 as an apparent reaction to Marcos’ “bickering” with China that he said could trigger war.
An excerpt of statement that his office sent to reporters on November 20, 2023 reads:
The veteran lawmaker, true-blooded Mindanawon, even suggested better Mindanao separates itself from Philippines if Imperial Manila insists on dragging entire nation towards prospect of war.
At least 60 posts and or articles based on Alvarez’s remarks were uploaded on Chinese platforms from Nov. 21 to 30, 2023, based on Doublethink Lab’s monitoring. Most articles and posts were uploaded on Chinese social media platforms Weibo, Baijahao and NetEase. Latter is Chinese website where users can “self-publish” news articles.
Majority of Chinese users’ articles about Mindanao secession campaign shared same argument that Marcos’ favorable policies toward United States were causing Mindanao to consider separating from the country. This, some alleged, was an indication of brewing civil war.
A month later on Dec. 27, 2023, online media portal Guancha released video that combines contents of four different articles published in November 2023. Video , used computer-generated voiceover, alleged that Marcos has been “stirring up anti-China sentiment at home” upon orders of US government.
Guancha video said “some regions … have stood up in resistance to prevent entire country from being dragged down by Marcos.” It also said Alvarez’s call to secede Mindanao came after Marcos attempted to draw Vietnam and Malaysia “into confrontation with China.”
Guancha has been flagged by Doublethink Lab for its role in spreading disinformation and messages that echo China’s “new nationalist” and anti-Western sentiment under guise of independent commentary.
This conclusion was drawn from tracing Guancha’s historical evolution, close ties with Chinese state institutions and state-connected influencers, and its involvement in information operations, such as false claims during Typhoon Jebi in Japan, misled Taiwanese media and thus fueled protests against then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.
Months later, on January 30, Duterte made same call as Alvarez, saying in press conference that Mindanao should consider seceding from Philippines through process based on gathering signatures.
This time, Philippine government responded directly to proposal, with National Security Adviser Eduardo Año saying on February 4 that any attempt to secede any part of the Philippines “will be met by the government with resolute force.” He added that government “will not hesitate to use its authority and forces to quell and stop any and all attempts to dismember the Republic.”
At least 11 posts or articles were published the week after Duterte’s statement. One of the articles, translated with open-source translation tool, said that the Philippine government would “attack with force.” Meanwhile, post of one anonymous account outright claims that the Philippines “is on brink of civil war.”
ISKUP! 