27 Marso 2024, Miyerkules
supports Fire Prevention Month
deepest sympathy to family of the late Danilo Halili
supports Women Month March
joins Christian nations in observance of Lenten season
welcomes Bagong Bayani Monico Lopez Caranay
Ph to face more cyclones in 2024 with La Niña’s return
By J.Lo
“Since warming of ocean temperature is closer to us, it is possible that tropical cyclones may develop closer to our seas,” Ana Liza Solis, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) climate monitoring chief said Philippines is likely to experience more tropical cyclones in 2024 than last year due to potential return of La Niña.
PAGASA projected 13 to 16 cyclones this year, marking increase from 11 storms in 2023, an El Niño year. Figures are still below average of 19 to 20 storms country typically sees annually.
Solis said there are usually more cyclones during La Niña because of warmer ocean temperatures. There is 62% chance that La Niña will develop during June to August.
“We will experience possible effects of La Niña during last quarter of the year,” she added.
La Niña brings stronger trade winds, pushing warm surface water in western Pacific, where Philippines is located, and drawing up cool water in eastern Pacific. Warm water creates more rain.
Science Secretary Renato Solidum noted that since warm water is closer to Philippines during La Niña, cyclones could reach land faster.
“It means lead time is shorter…for cyclones closer to land, there is less time to prepare,” he said.
Early this March, PAGASA issued La Niña Watch. Historically, pre-developing La Niña events are characterized by below-normal rainfall. Weather bureau said this suggests possible slight delay in onset of rainy season “likely with confirmed effects of ongoing El Niño.”
El Niño, climate pattern associated with extreme heat and drought, is gradually weakening, but its effects will persist in the coming months.
Solidum said drought will affect 48 provinces, while dry spells will impact 24 provinces by April. By May, 54 provinces will experience drought and 10 will face dry spells.
Number of drought-stricken provinces will decrease over the next months: 25 by June, 23 by July, and 10 by August.
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