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Ph won’t go into recession – Diokno
By Nidz Godino
“I can assure you, your honor, that given data that we have, under very extreme conditions, we will not have recession because we have very young population,” Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said Philippines will not go into recession. Diokno made statement when asked about Department of Finance’s plans to mitigate looming global recession during Commission on Appointments (CA) committee hearing on his ad interim appointment.
“For example, our unemployment rate is now down to five percent,that is the lowest since before pandemic…so I can assure you, given our focus on agriculture, restored mining, power industry, and manufacturing are working well plus we have opened up overseas workers, we have increased quality of our overseas workers, I don’t think we’ll have recession, your honor,” he stressed.
CA Majority Leader and Camarines Sur Representative Luis Raymund Villafuerte, who raised the question during the hearing, said while projected economic growth is “very good,” the country still needs to consider global economy.
Diokno, in response, explained that Philippine economy is “less dependent” on external factors.
“Our economy is more or less domestic-driven economy,” he said.
The DOF chief likewise reiterated that country’s debt is still manageable.
“Our public debt is manageable, let’s put it that way… it should not be cause for concern,” Diokno told CA panel.The DOF chief explained anew that debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 40 percent before pandemic to 62 percent during pandemic due to vaccine procurement and improvement of health services, among others.
“That should not be a cause for concern 62 percent… very manageable compared to other countries debt-to-GDP ratio is 200 percent,” he added.
In previous Senate hearing, Diokno said Philippines’ debt problems will not reach Sri Lanka’s level.
Further, Diokno said government has “very strong” economic strategy in the next six years.
This strategy includes higher revenue targets and stricter spending policies.
“So, with higher revenues and stricter on expenditure side, I think we can manage our debts,” Diokno said.
As of end-September this year, debt-to-GDP ratio,the amount of government’s debt stock relative to the size of the economy rose to 63.7% from 62.1% in the second quarter of 2022.
This is the highest debt-to-GDP ratio since 2005, when it hit 65.7%, well over internationally recommended threshold of 60%.
The country’s debt swelled to new record high of P13.517 trillion as of the end of September 2022, as government issued securities to raise funds to support budget, coupled with peso’s weakening against US dollar.
Diokno earlier announced administration aims to bring down debt-to-GDP ratio to 52.5% by 2028.
The debt-to-economy level is intended to decline continuously to 61.8% in 2022, 61.3% next year, 60.6% by 2024, and 59.3% by 2025.
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